The world goes into turmoil this week. The statistics may look alarming but remember that we go throu flu seasons anyway . In Germany winter season 2017/2019 25,000 people died of it and it was hardly even noticed!
I work with official data but we know that the number of unreported cases is may be 5-10 times higher than reported and that reporting confirmed cases is delayed by about a week. See Image 12.9 with video link. Good news is that strict stay-at-home campaigns almost stop the spread and that the quarantine time is only 10-14 days. Theoretically, if the whole world stayed at home, the virus would be erradicated within 20-30 days!
Please share if you find this good. The spreadsheets may not be optimal on smart-phones but read the notes?
Image 12.1 Data sorted by total reported cases for each country (column AP)
We all thought it was a Chinese thing? China reported only 184 cases in week 12.
China, South Korea and Japan are "ex-hotspots"! Europe is the new hotspot.
Note: not all COVID-19 cases are tested. It is unknown how many do not report being sick, easily recover at home!
Schocking, 64 countries reported their first cases this week
I count 72 countries or overseas territories that have not reported one single tested positive case yet.
Image 12.2 sorted by deaths in Week 12 (column AX)
China does not appear in the top-40 in this list, reported only 184 caes and 66 deaths this week (theoretically?)
Deaths in Italy and the death rate in Italy alarming news :-(
Image 12.3 data sorted by percentage of patients recovered (column BE)
Recovery is new in my data and will be interesting in a few weeks.
Image 12.5 Spreadsheet sorted by population (column C)
Countries of large population that have not reported cases of COVID.19 include: Myanmar (54 million), Colombia (49M), Uganda (45M), Angola (33M), Venuzuela (28M), Madagascar (28M), North Korea (26M), Niger (24M), Mali (20M), Malawi (19M), Syria (18M?), Zimbabwe (15M), South Sudan (12M).....
Image 12.6 Data sorted by north/south position (columnF)
Shows hardest hit countries SOUTH of ~27°N
The cases will intensify in far southern countries when they aproach mid-winter there.
Argentina, South Africa and New Zealand are in danger of becomming hot-spots in June till October?
Total population below 27°N is ~3.7 billion, half of the Earth's population.
Image 12.7 showing north-south equi-population latitude
An equal amount of the worlds population lie north and south of this line. To simplify statistics I have drawn a boundary as not to split countries.
Image 12.8: Clever graph by Lisa Chrlotte Rost (John Hopkins CSSE) showing case progress, all starting from first day of case one. I critisize the exponential vertical scale, it thus shows false curves, example that Europe's new cases per day are declining!
Image 12.8 Questioning reported data
This shows delayed reporting and estimated cases not reported yet.
See video to this that explaines it very well: https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk
Credit: Thomas Peuyo & presented by Khan Academy
I am human. Please let me know if you find errors here. Accuracy not guaranteed. Feedback please.
Interactive spreedsheet to this report is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X0dc15WfbDAJ2wt3ZbSgk7T8HF65-TRkLz2Cfcoq4Bw/edit#gid=0
BNO statistics: > https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
See also map showing infected town and cities by Avi Schiffman https://ncov2019.live/map
Fund me please! https://www.rangutan.eu/fund-me-please/
Keep safe at home and remember to take vitamin-C supliments and get a lot of vitamin-D (sunshine) to strengthen your immune system. More health tips at https://www.facebook.com/rangutanshealthtips/ and meditation/prayer/faith at https://www.facebook.com/rangutansreligionsunite/
Celebrities tested positive: Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, Prince Charles, Tom Hanks...
Isaiah 26:20 " Go, my people, enter your rooms and shut the doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until His wrath has passed by."
My next update on Sunday 2020-03-28 for calender-week 13 (hopefully)